After the drama of the first four states, the Nevada caucus is shaping up as something of a let-down.
Nearly everyone expects Mitt Romney to win by a big margin. Newt Gingrich barely put up a fight.
Continue ReadingThe closest thing to excitement was the confusion surrounding Donald Trump?s endorsement ? and even he didn?t deliver any fireworks when he announced his support for Romney Thursday.
Below are POLITICO?s five things to watch in the first-in-the-West contest Saturday:
1) Mitt?s margin
While a Romney win appears to be a foregone conclusion, a Nevada victory is nothing to sneeze at: There are more delegates at stake than in South Carolina.
More important, though, Romney could take a step toward proving he can win over conservatives by rolling up a big winning margin. There aren?t many Rockefeller Republicans in the Nevada GOP electorate: Forty percent of Nevada caucus-goers described themselves as ?very conservative? according to 2008 entrance polls. Two years later, the state?s vigorous tea party movement captured headlines by powering a long-shot, political exotic ? Sharron Angle ? to the 2010 GOP Senate nomination against the wishes of the GOP establishment.
In 2008, Romney managed to win just over half the vote, 51.1 percent. While recent polls have him just below that, breaking the 50 percent barrier for the first time this year would give him some welcome momentum going into Tuesday?s contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.
2) Newt?s percentage
Not much went right for Gingrich in Nevada, and another thrashing on the heels of Florida will be a deflating experience. On the other hand, finishing in second place ahead of Ron Paul ? who finished second here in 2008 and has a significant presence in Nevada this time around ? will remove some of the sting of a second consecutive loss.
Gingrich wins about a quarter of the vote in recent Nevada polls. The good news is that he?s polling that high despite bumbling through the state with a limited schedule of public events and no television buys at all. The bad news is that, if he remained at about 25 percent, his trajectory would be unmistakable: 40 percent in South Carolina, 32 percent in Florida, even less in Nevada.
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